17 July 2007

Pay my car off? Do I want the relief?

So, I have been pretty adamant that I am not a subscriber to the idea of making financial decisions based on how they affect you psychologically. Specifically, I believe that you should make your financial decisions largely on the quantitative outcomes. If X will make you richer than Y, do X even if it means more short-term debt. So no Dave Ramsey debt snowballing-- high rates should come first, low rates second.

Consequently, I haven't been paying any extra on my 4.5% car loan (at least not in the last year). Instead I've been maintaining my emergency fund and all excess has gone into the market, primarily in retirement accounts, counting on higher long-term returns than the 4.5% I'd get from paying down the car loan.

Included in my emergency fund (which is designed to pay 3 months' expenses) are 3 car payments of $588 each. I've long known that my car will be paid off this December (5 more payments). But it just occurred to me this morning that the difference in my payoff amount (~$2800) and the amount this will lower my emergency fund needs (~$1800) is only about $1k. Meaning, if I paid my car loan off today, it would only cause about $1k shortfall in my emergency fund.

Bear with me. If the payoff amount and the emergency fund reduction evened out, it would be smart to pay off the loan, since I'm losing 4.5% on the car loan and gaining 5.3% (minus taxes, more like 4%) on my emergency fund at GMAC bank. So the question is . . . is the $1k discrepancy small enough that the "relief" of the debt payoff overcomes any risk of falling short in my emergency fund (as well as some small amount that could be geared toward the market over the next 5 months)?

In the end, this is a psychological vs. quantitative question. Quantitatively speaking, it would make sense to wait 2 more payments before paying it off. The small excess, about $500 this month and next, would go to the market under this plan. Under the psychologically-driven payoff, that $500 excess would instead go to replenish the emergency fund, which I raided to pay off the car.

So here's what it boils down to, in risk/reward:

With the optimal plan, I wait two months, netting a potential marginal gain of 2 months' worth of time in the market instead of in a fixed-rate savings account. The only risk involved is that the market over the 2 months will underperform the 4% yield on my savings account.

With the payoff plan, I pay it off now, gaining some peace of mind. I risk potential gains in the market, instead replenishing a raided emergency fund with a real return of about 4%.


I've been thinking that before November, there would be a dip in the market. A lot of "experts" share this belief. If that happens, paying off the car is financially wise in addition to being the good psychological choice. Of course, counting on that assumes much. It may climb 5% in the next few months. You never know, and I'd be missing out on some gains by doing the payoff. Quantitatively speaking, I'd be missing out on the gains of $1000 over 2 months. If it gains 5%, I'll be losing out on $50, sacrificing that money for some immediate peace of mind and the removal of my only consumer debt from my balance sheet.

Is it worth it? On the one hand, it's just $50 (and that's not guaranteed-- not even likely)-- a small price to pay for peace of mind. On the other, $50 here and there make a difference in the grand scheme. I make decisions based on lesser amounts every day.

Thoughts? Any input is welcome. I have a lean right now, but I can be swayed either direction.

58 comments:

Beyond the Consumer said...

I kind of think of my car loan (we only have one, my wifes) as trying to run backwards. Sure, I could invest extra every month and earn a little more money than if I paid the car loan, but I don't want a loan!

I want to get it paid off ASAP and just go back to making the "car payment" to myself. Save up the cash, earn the interest, and buy the next car with a suitcase full of one dollar bills.

Paying off the car loan removes me from that loan 'cycle'.

Brad said...

"A suitcase full of one dollar bills" . . . I like that. :-)

Kevin said...

Pay it off!

Look at it this way -- your car payment is a potential drain on your emergency fund. That is, lose a job and meeting that payment might take a chunk from your emergency funds. If you pay it off, you have lessened the amount you really need in the fund.

Any thinking about what the market will do is going down the slippery slope of trying to time the market.

Brad said...

Oh, I'm not trying to time the market. I was simply addressing the possibility that the market goes down in the next 2 months, making the car payment the better investment quantitatively. I'm not an advocate of market timing in any form or fashion.

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